Speaker: Chris Davis (NCAR)
Title: Predicting Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure and Storm Surge
Abstract: This presentation examines the prediction of the overall TC wind field and hazards related to it. In particular, I will examine the consequences of limited numerical model resolution on the representation of maximum winds and the consequences of related errors in the TC wind structure for storm surge prediction. The results will support the importance of predicting the outer winds of a TC. I will argue that such prediction is both practical, given predictability limitations, and realizable, even in relatively coarse-resolution models.
Speaker Bio: Chris Davis has served as Director of NCAR’s Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory since 2015. He came to NCAR in 1990 as postdoc in the Advanced Study Program (ASP), and later became a Senior Scientist in 2006. From 2010-2015, he directed ASP. Chris’s research interests are mesoscale dynamics and tropical cyclones, studied with both field observations and numerical modeling. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.